Republican candidate in the 2024 primary race in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District Rep. Austin Theriault (R-Fort Kent) has accused his opponent, Rep. Mike Soboleski (R-Phillips), of conducting a “fake poll” over the weekend.
In a post to his campaign Facebook page Tuesday, Theriault accused “Team Soboleski and/or their allies” of conducting a push poll over the weekend “falsely attacking” Theriault and claiming that former President Donald Trump has not endorsed him.
In a statement to the Maine Wire, a spokesperson for Soboleski’s campaign denied conducting any polling.
President Trump gave Theriault his “Complete and Total Endorsement” in a March 27 post to his Truth Social platform, saying that the former NASCAR driver “will work hard to Secure the Border, Protect our always under siege Second Amendment, Stop Crime, Cut Taxes, and Support our Brave Law Enforcement, Military, and Veterans.”
[RELATED: Trump Endorses Austin Theriault for Maine CD2, Slams Jared Golden as ‘beholden to Radical Left’…]
In his Tuesday post, Theriault wrote that “President Trump endorsed me because he knows I’m the America First candidate in the race who will build the wall, fight crime, stop the out-of-control spending, reduce the price of energy, defend the sanctity of life, and send Jared Golden and Joe Biden packing.”
“Mainers should know that Trump didn’t make this endorsement lightly,” he added, before launching into his allegations against Soboleski.
“But instead of supporting and helping President Trump win, my opponent & his allies have decided to attack Trump — even using liberal Democrat Jared Golden’s words to disparage President Trump! It’s disappointing and very telling,” he wrote.
Theriault explained that his campaign “just heard about a fake poll Team Soboleski and/or their allies were doing over the weekend falsely attacking me and telling flat out lies — such as that Trump hasn’t endorsed me — when they know full well that he has!”
[RELATED: NASCAR Driver Austin Theriault Joins the Race for Maine’s Second Congressional District…]
The Fort Kent Republican went on to say that “my opponents are proving that they will say and do anything for political power, and you can’t believe a single word of their attacks,” calling the alleged poll “untrue, sad, and an act of desperation.”
“President Trump knows they’re lies, and that’s why he has my back,” Theriault wrote. “Please join us and President Trump in fighting back against these lies whenever you hear them.”
The Theriault campaign’s post did not include any evidence of the accusation or the specific contents of the poll.
Staffers for the Theriault campaign, who had previously sent a memo to media making allegations similar to those in the Facebook post, did not respond to multiple inquiries asking for more information or evidence that supported the claims.
While the Federal Election Commission does not regulate how standard public opinion polling must be conducted during elections, so-called “push polls” — that is, polls that outright campaign for or against a candidate rather than measuring opinions — are required to include “clear and conspicuous” disclosures as to who has paid for the push polling.
However, it’s common for political consultants to craft questions aimed at shifting opinions without necessarily rising to the level of a reportable expenditure.
The Maine Wire spoke to a man residing in CD-2 who said he was one of the people contacted by a pollster via telephone around the time period Theriault’s Facebook post mentioned.
The man, who wished not to be named in this story, said that the live pollster told him the survey “was for the 2nd district campaign between Soboleski and Theriault, but did not say if they were affiliated with either candidate or if they were Republican or Democratic.”
“He asked a multiple of questions, Democrat and Republican questions – there were both,” he said, adding that he did not think the poll was in any way politically biased.
“It was a poll that just was looking for information on what would I do, to vote for the candidate,” he said. “I don’t think it seemed biased, politically biased. I had to answer yes or no, or likely, or dislike, you know, stuff like that. I mean, it wasn’t something that was all one-sided or anything.”
Contrary to the allegations made against Soboleski by Theriault, the man told the Maine Wire that there were no attacks made against Theriault as part of the poll, and that there was a specific question in which the pollster asked “what I thought of Trump endorsing Theriault.”
The cost to conduct a poll by phone is high and largely dependent on the sample size, the length of the survey, and whether the survey is conducted live or by automation.
Conducting a survey with a statistically meaningful sample size and live questioners can easily cost over $10,000.
Theriault has so far out-raised Soboleski by about a ten-to-one ratio, collecting more than $350,000 in the first fundraising quarter of his campaign, receiving money from House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) “American Revival PAC.”
According to the FEC filing for Theriault’s campaign committee, “Theriault for Congress,” the Fort Kent native closed out 2023 with $337,905 cash on hand.
[RELATED: Maine CD-2 Challenger Austin Theriault Collects Over $350,000 in Donations Through End of 2023…]
Rep. Soboleski’s year-end FEC filing, on the other hand, finished 2023 with $24,563 on hand, though he has since claimed in media interviews to have had greater fundraising success.
On Wednesday a spokesperson for the Soboleski campaign denied any affiliation with the poll, and slammed Theriault as “Establishment Austin” and for being “insecure” with the Trump endorsement.
[RELATED: Exotic Dancers, Tax Liens & Debauchery: Maine’s CD2 Republican Primary Is Getting Fiery…]
“Our campaign had nothing to do with this poll despite the wild accusations from my opponent,” the Soboleski campaign spokesperson said. “I think it shows that Establishment Austin is very insecure with the Trump endorsement he received because it doesn’t fit him or his liberal voting record.”
“Team Soboleski will be doing everything we can to help Donald Trump win as many Electoral votes in Maine as he can. He must win in November,” the spokesperson added.
In recent comments to the Washington Examiner, incumbent CD-2 Congressman Jared Golden (D) said that he would “rather face a neoliberal like Austin Theriault than another Marine like Mike Soboleski.”
[RELATED: Jared Golden Trolls Austin Theriault, Trump’s Pick for ME-CD2…]
“But it’s funny that Trump would back someone who just a few years ago was talking about running as a Democrat instead of backing the guy who has supported Trump all along,” Golden told the Examiner. “I guess the Washington establishment wants Theriault.”
A spokesperson from Golden’s office said they were not aware of any polling being conducted in CD-2 by the Golden campaign.
The Theriault campaign did not respond to multiple requests for additional information about the alleged “fake poll” or for evidence regarding its content.
Given Trump’s knack for endorsing RINOs that stab him in the back at the first opportunity, Soboleski should remain silent. This race doesn’t even matter anyway, since the outcome has already been decided, just as EVERY “race” in the country has. It’s easy to make the mistake of voting communism IN, but you’ll never vote your way OUT of it. That being said, I wouldn’t vote for Theriault if he paid me.