The famous political analyst Larry Sabato, working with The Center for Politics on his Sabato’s Crystal Ball project, has published a revised list of electoral predictions, suggesting good news for Republicans across multiple states, and showing promise for a Republican victory in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (CD-2).
“The single electoral vote in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District goes from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. Trump won this single electoral vote by about 6 points under the current lines, and it is the kind of white working-class area that is hard to see swinging strongly to Biden in this election,” said Sabato.
The revisions published Thursday included six changes, five changes in presidential chances, and one in a senate race, all of which favored Republicans.
[RELATED: Trump’s Pick for Maine CD2 Wins Big in GOP Primary…]
Maine’s CD-2 chances moved from “Leans Republican” to “Likely Republican,” suggesting that the district is likely to continue its 2016 and 2020 trend of supporting Trump.
Along with Maine’s CD-2, Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania moved towards a Republican victory.
Some of those states, including Pennsylvania and Georgia, are typically regarded as key swing states, which could alter the outcome of the presidential election.
Pennsylvania moved from “Leans Democrat” to “Toss Up,” while Georgia moved from “Toss Up” to “Leans Republican.”
Sen. Bob Casey (D-Penn.) saw a drop in his chances, with his re-election moving from “Likely Democrat” to “Leans Democrat.”
Unlike all other states except Nebraska, Maine can split its electoral votes, with the first and second districts often supporting different presidential candidates.
In 2016 and 2020, for example, Maine’s CD-2 voted mostly for Trump, resulting in Trump winning one Electoral College vote despite Maine having voted statewide mostly for Biden.
[RELATED: Maine Joins the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact]
Despite the revisions, Sabato believes that the presidential race as a whole remains a toss-up.
“There is some nostalgia in polls for the pre-2020, pre-Covid, and pre-inflation period that coincided with Trump’s presidency. That doesn’t necessarily mean the public is clamoring for Trump, who remains unpopular; it’s just that they may prefer him to Biden, or may just be thinking more about what they don’t like about Biden (the incumbent) than Trump (the challenger),” said the political analyst.
The newly revised Sabato’s Crystal Ball map shows the electoral chances for every state, demonstrating why they believe the race to be too close to call.
The map shows that, while there are only 241 electoral votes which appear to be on the Democrat side compared with 251 for Republicans, the 46 “Toss Ups” from Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania could easily shift the votes in favor of President Joe Biden.
Sabato has a history of correct predictions, although he expected a sweeping victory for Hillary Clinton in 2016, before the presidency then went to President Trump.
He correctly predicted the results of the 2020 election.
He has been a staunch critic of Trump, and it is unclear whether this personal opinion has influenced his predictions in any way.
The political analyst released his revised electoral map on Thursday, just two days after the Trump-endorsed State Rep. Austin Theriault (R-Fort Kent) won the district’s primary in a landslide, although that victory did not necessarily have any impact on the revised predictions.
Interestingly, although CD-2 has historically voted for Trump, it has also voted to be represented by Democrat Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine), who has attempted to portray himself as a more moderate Democrat.
Although the rating change only reflected the likelihood of the Republican presidential candidate receiving CD-2’s vote, it may also suggest a strong chance for Rep. Austin Theriault.
Prior to the recent update, Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated Golden’s seat a “toss up,” which could go to either the Democrat or Republican.
The shift to the right is the work of our “Four Bright Bulbs” of our Democratic Maine leader ship. The always move forward taking our money!
If it goes R will it make any difference?
The article says :
“ It has also voted to be represented by Jarod Golden “ ….BS
The Ranked Choice Voting scheme is what got Golden elected .
Let’s not forget that .
Bruce Peloquin would be our representative in a normal world where you count the votes and whoever gets the most is the winner .
The democrats flood the ballot with losers ….the more the better
Losers get to pick the winners .